Message-Id: <v01540b00b05cef891359@[12.64.1.22]>
To: pinhole@exploratorium.edu
From: kstreet@worldnet.att.net (Karen Street)
Subject: Kyoto conference on global climate change
Date: Sun, 5 Oct 1997 14:59:07 +0000
It's time to start preparing our students for the December conference in
Kyoto on global climate change.
The world governments, particularly the Europeans are upset because we
won't cut our carbon production. Fifteen hundred scientists, including over
half the world's living science nobel laureates, have expressed concerned
about the US and global climate change.
Meanwhile a very expensive campaign is being mounted by the biggies to
complain that the countries that produce way less carbon than us (that is,
the developing nations) are not required to cut back. We, who produce much
more carbon, as a nation and per capita, than any other nation, will be
asked to do this at the December Kyoto meeting. And the concern is
expressed that certain industries would suffer. (That is indeed the goal:
to cut back on world use of coal, gasoline and other fossil fuels, and to
reduce the use of automobiles.)
What are the issues?
The Earth absorbs energy from light. It then reflects and emits infrared
light, keeping the temperature of the Earth in some balance. The presence
of carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons and some other gases in our
atmosphere limits the ability of infrared light to make it out of our
atmosphere.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up to evaluate
Earth's dangers from global warming. The 1995 report makes predictions as
to what will happen based on current trends, and makes recommendations
accordingly. A very small part of the results, and conclusions based on
these results, are mentioned below.
Predictions that cover the lifetime of some people alive today:
° If all continues as predicted, temperature will rise 0.3ƒ C (about 0.5ƒ
F) each decade, and the sea level will rise 6 cm (2.4 in) each decade. Rain
will increase in some places and decrease in others-Canada and the northern
part of the former USSR may benefit while areas to the south of them
suffer. There will be many more hurricanes, lightning storms and forest
fires. River flow will drop by 25% after the temperature increases 1ƒ C,
while precipitation will drop by 10%.
° Glacier-related hazards, which have killed 30,000 and cost $1 billion
over the last century and a half, will be an increasing problem, especially
in places like Nepal.
° Plant life would shift towards those species less efficient in trapping
carbon, and weeds will prosper. Some crops will do better from increase
carbon dioxide, though increased NOx production could result in a 10% to
35% decrease in grain production by 2025. In the southern hemisphere, a
smaller change will affect crops more dramatically, because the primary
food crops there fare poorly in a carbon-rich atmosphere. The US corn belt
will move 175 km (100 miles) for each 1ƒ C increase in growing season
temperature. Trees in the tropics already are growing faster, dying younger
and being replaced by lianas (vines), which remove less carbon from the
air.
° Temperature changes cause stress to animal populations. Scientists
believe that they have already seen evidence of this. One report predicts
that at the end of next century, Lake Erie may have no fish.
° According to current understanding, in the next 100 years we will suffer
major weather upheavals, loss of biodiversity with serious consequences,
stress on the world's water supplies, and an increase in the sea level.
Other predictions include more movement of people away from the latitudes
close to the equator, exacerbating problems with immigration among the
northern nations; increased humidity that may enhance the environment for
pathogens; and increased frequency and severity of respiratory disease, as
well as disease transmitted by insects.
"Long-term" dangers:
° In addition to the slow rise in sea level predicted, the melting of the
Ross ice sheet in the Antarctic could produce a sudden 6 m (20 feet)
increase. This would flood most of the world's seaports and much of the
most fertile soil. If the Earth's heating continues over several centuries,
the sea level could rise by 60 m (200 ft).
° For several centuries after carbon levels have stabilized, the Earth will
continue to heat, and for many more centuries, the sea level will continue
to rise.
No one is certain that the catastrophes attributed to global warming will
occur, but the results could be devastating. While American economists fail
to see a problem for the US, Shell Oil is raising the height of platforms
in the North Sea one or two meters, at $16 million/meter. No one has any
idea how to deal with these great quantities of excess carbon dioxide
(though several small- scale plans are being investigated). Prevention,
limiting the CO2 in the atmosphere, is the only approach: global warming
cannot be stopped or reversed in the short term (thousands of years).
It's time to begin presenting this material in our government and science
classes.
Karen Street