Message-Id: <l03102800b05acb8766e2@[153.90.236.25]>
In-Reply-To: <3.0.3.32.19971002175502.0068deac@mail.walltech.com>
Date: Fri, 3 Oct 1997 09:36:54 -0700
To: pinhole@exploratorium.edu
From: Steven Eiger <eiger@montana.edu>
Subject: Re: Cassini, more Nasa answers
Geoff, I know you wanted Paul's response, but I will give you mine too. I
would say to this person that there is no such thing as a guarantee, it is
like a black and white decision without any gray areas, they do not exist.
I would point out other catastrophies such as fires, dam bursts, locusts,
bridge collapses, house collapses and ask if our reliance on such
technologies as fire, electricity, agriculture has been a good thing. I
suspect that a thousand years in the future, that space travel might be as
easy a decision, especially if earth has just been pulverized by a meteor
or something else large. The question is whether waiting would decrease
the risks, and what are the risks of waiting. On the other hand some
things seem like pure data collection for no good reason,k other than to
satisfy human curiosity; and what kind of risks are we willing to take for
that. Have all the earlier examples been driven by curiosity or by
practical results? How about mountain climbers, and how to we assess our
risks. Actually, it is a fascinating topic. About 6 or 7 years ago there
was a great issue of Science devoted to risk assessment and perception.
Anyway,as I am safely behind the Maginot line here in Montana,and am late
for something, bye, and good luck, eiger
>Paul,
>Inevitably when people see scientific assurances that potentially dangerous
>experiments CAN'T go wrong, they point to past technologies that did fail
>while they were supposedly foolproof. The Titantic, 3 Mile Island, and the
>Challenger all come to mind as examples of such failed assurances. I'm
>curious how you would respond to someone who says that s/he can't believe
>scientific guarantees because the history of science is full of cases where
>dangerous technologies failed catastrophically despite assurances.
>-Geoff Ruth
>Geoff Ruth
>Eastside School
>2101 Pulgas Avenue
>East Palo Alto, CA 94303
>(650) 323-5898